Biden's job approval is even lower than being reported.
Pollsters are propping up Biden in typical, but tricky ways. Here is the proof.
Given his recent “press conference” designed to “reset” his failing administration, there has been a lot of talk recently about Biden’s poll numbers. While most observers note that his numbers are down and have been dropping almost since the moment he took office, almost everyone is misstating how expansive Biden’s approval drop has been.
The typical trick a commentator that is trying to make Biden look better will engage in is quoting a poll from a pollster known to publish Democrat friendly polls. It is no secret that some pollsters are known for favoring one political party or issue, or both. The Legacy Media is fond, for example, of labelling certain polling outfits as “Republican,” but much more reluctant to label any outfit as “Democrat” leaning. Despite this, they know well which firms are known for publishing polls that favor Democrat politicians such as Biden. While this assuredly is going on (and has been for some time), this is not what has been unusual recently.
Before turning to it, we should cover some polling basics. While any individual poll may not follow this rule, generally polls of “Adults” favor Democrats. As you move from polling “Adults” to “Registered Voters” and then to “Likely Voters,” your poll almost always skews more towards Republicans. Again, not a perfect rule, but one that almost always holds.
This explains why you are seeing the Democrat Party push so hard to relax almost any voting impediment—if all “Adults” voted, their voting fortunes would improve substantially. Put another way, it has long been known by those that closely follow politics that the more you move from voting in person on Election Day towards early voting and/or voting by mail, the more you favor Democrat voters and, thus, Democrat politicians. However, this is a story for another article.
It has also generally been accepted that since most people care about what is more likely to occur, most polls release and publicize their “Likely Voter” polls. This is especially true the closer you get to Election Day. However, even if facing the voters is well off into to the future, as it is for Biden, one would expect to see primarily “Likely Voter” polls about his approval being published.
With this background, let us look at the latest polls with respect to Biden’s approval. According to RealClearPolitics.com, Biden’s average job approval rating stands at 40.8% https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president-biden-job-approval-7320.html
However, the aggregator site includes 2 polls of “Adults” and 6 polls of “Registered Voters,” but only 3 of “Likely Voters.” By including so may polls of “Registered Voters” and especially those of “Adults,” Biden’s average approval rises substantially. This is due to the phenomenon explained above whereby as you move towards the attitudes of simply “Adults,” the more you favor a Democrat politician such as the President. The numbers make this clear—Biden’s average approval among “Adults” is 41.5%, among “Registered Voters” it is 41.2%, and among “Likely Voters” it is 39.6%. Last week the numbers were even more divergent: “Adults” were 43%, “Registered Voters” 40.2%, and “Likely Voters” were 37.3%. So, not only are the polling sites showing Biden’s average approval propping up his numbers, they are keeping him above the 40% threshold artificially.
At quick glance at other issues polled demonstrates the disparity and tendency to favor Biden. For example, the aggregate polls for “2022 Generic Congressional Vote” includes zero polls of “Adults.” Similarly, a quick glance at any contested Senate seat for 2022 fails to include any polls of “Adults” and far less polls of “Registered Voters.” This plainly is a purposeful move to make the President’s approval appear higher than it actually is.
Of course, this is yet another in a long line of ways that Legacy Media establishments favor Democrats generally and Biden in particular. However, it is unusual to see this blatant bias creep further into areas that presumably should be more measured and nonpartisan. It seems today that this may no longer exist.
In any event, just be careful next time you glance at Biden’s average approval rating. It is probably lower than being reported.